Economic Forecast 2004

Economy Poised to Take Off

It may have just been a coincidence that this year Ingram's Magazine assembled its annual gathering of top area economists on the one-hundredth anniversary of Kitty Hawk.

But by session's end, it did not seem that way. By all accounts, the economy seems to be taking off and flying high. Never have we at Ingram's witnessed more shared optimism about an upcoming year than we did on December 17.

The mood this year contrasted dramatically with the one last year as best captured in its headline: "Partly Cloudy in the Morning. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. Chance of Serious Storms Throughout the Day."

That much said, everyone in the room understood that given the precariousness of the world situation, a sudden jolt to the system from any number of sources could play havoc with the forecasts. James Moffett of UMB, for instances, observed how "one mad cow" in Canada had affected the cattle market in both Canada and the United States. A week later, one made cow in the U.S. would throw a wrench into the agricultural forecasts of our assembled economists.

Hosting the forum at the Federal Reserve Bank was Tom Hoenig, President of the Kansas City Federal Reserve. In attendance were a dozen of the Midwest's preeminent economists, including representatives from the Kansas City Area, Lawrence, Omaha and St. Louis. This forum was part of Ingram's ongoing effort to highlight issues of interest to the business community in Kansas City's greater metropolitan area.

Participants Include:

(front row left to right)
Bob Litan
Kauffman Foundation
Craig Hakkio
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Tom Hoenig
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Ernie Goss
Creighton University
Tim Michel
Bank of America/Capital Management

(back row left to right)
Jack Cashill
Ingram’s Magazine
Carl Schramm
Kauffman Foundation
Randell Moore
Blue Chip Economic Indicators
Michael Stellern
Rockhurst University
Jeff Pinkerton
Mid America Regional Council
James Moffett
UMB Bank
William Keeton
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Homer Erekson
Bloch School of Business (UMKC)
Kevin Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Chuck Krider
University of Kansas School of Business
Michelle Sweeney
Ingram’s Magazine